May 2026 Market Report presented by Ashlee Donaldson
The May 2026 Market Report is here to keep you connected to market updates, featured homes, and everything happening in and around the Phoenix Valley each month. Take a look around our website while you’re here – you’ll find our featured properties, learn more about our team, and discover resources designed to help with your next move.
What Home Buyers Should Know:
Conflicting Headlines:
Two local headlines published this month contradicted each other regarding the active supply situation in Greater Phoenix. The first, published on May 4, was titled “Phoenix housing inventory surges toward record highs.” The associated article stated the current active listing count is “a level only surpassed in two months in recorded history: April and May of last year.” This statement aligns with the last 12 years of historical data, but it doesn’t hold up over 25 years.
The Real News:
The Second Story:
The second headline, published 10 days later on May 14, was titled “Arizona facing home shortage as unaffordability weighs on potential buyers” and declared that Arizona faces an immediate shortage of 56,000 homes, with a long-term shortage of 110,000. So which headline is correct? Is inventory surging to new highs, or is it critically low? Surging inventory would put downward pressure on prices, while an inventory shortage results in upward pressure. Looking at median sales price measures, they have had little fluctuation for more than two years, suggesting that neither of these theories is reflected in pricing trends.
Long Story Short:
In short, Greater Phoenix supply counts are not breaking records, they are not surging, and they are not critically low. Statistically, active supply is considered within a normal range and stable for now. Meanwhile, buyer contracts have improved 11% over this time last year despite recent mortgage rate increases, indicating that buyer demand could increase significantly should economic certainty improve and mortgage rates fall closer to 6.0%.
What Home Sellers Should Know:
Listings Under Contract Increase 11% in May
The peak spring buying season is nearly over, and total sales to date have exceeded last year by 2.9%. The largest improvement is in the luxury market, where sales over $1M are up 10% and at a record high. Most impressively, sales over $5M are up 31% over last year, and there have already been 36 sales over $10M so far, already exceeding last year’s annual record of 32 before the year is halfway through.
What To Expect:
Business As Usual:
Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report
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