January 2026 Market Report presented by Ashlee Donaldson
The January 2026 Market Report is here to keep you connected to market updates, featured homes, and everything happening in and around the Phoenix Valley each month. Take a look around our website while you’re here – you’ll find our featured properties, learn more about our team, and discover resources designed to help with your next move.
Hello!
As we begin a new year, I want to sincerely thank you for being part of this community. Whether we’ve worked together directly or stayed connected through this newsletter, I’m truly grateful for the trust and relationships that continue to grow.
This monthly updated is thoughtfully curated to offer meaningful market insight, local perspective, and timely information designed to support informed decisions at every stage of your real estate journey. Real estate is never just about a property; it’s about lifestyle, timing, and the moments that define what’s next. I look forward to staying connected and continuing to serve as a valued resource in the year ahead.
Warmly,
Ashlee Donaldson, Realtor®
Ashlee & Associates | Keller Williams Arizona Realty
What Home Buyers Should Know:
Affordability Strains Show Signs of Easing
Happy New Year! Buying season has begun in Greater Phoenix, and it’s kicking off with a wave of fresh new listings. In a typical year, January is the most popular month for luxury and retirement community listings to hit the market while March tends to be the peak month for the main stream. Within the first 3-4 weeks of the year, these new listings are met with buyer demand escalating dramatically in January, then tapering off before peaking in April or May.
Listings Are Down from January 2025:
This is the most affordable range in Greater Phoenix where sales prices are down 2-3% from last year and continuing to decline. It comprises mostly condos and mobile homes in central cities such as Phoenix and Mesa, and mostly single family homes in the outskirts like Pinal County. All other new listing counts are in line with last year or weaker, which is contributing to a more balanced state between supply and demand as we begin 2026.
Monthly Payment Breakdown:
A $300K purchase with FHA is approximately $1,860/month before taxes and possible HOA. Mortgage payments on properties under $300K can compete with rent, but not necessarily when tenants are upgrading their living space. For instance, a tenant paying $2,100 in apartment rent in Scottsdale cannot afford to upgrade to a single family home in the same area for the same monthly payment. However, they may be able to purchase a similar unit in the same area, or they could purchase a single family home in an outer city like Maricopa and commute.
Where it Gets Messy…
This is where the affordable housing debate can get messy. Listing counts are telling us that supply of affordable homes under $300K is rising and sales of those units are also rising (up 7%), suggesting that affordability strains are easing. However, 2025 sales over $500K were also up 7% while sales within $300K – $500K were near identical. If there were truly a lack of affordable homes, then supply under $300K would be rapidly declining like it did from 2020 to 2022 where there were fewer than 500 for sale, and prices would be rising. But that’s not what’s happening. Evidence suggests that it’s not a lack of affordable homes to purchase, but an aversion to moving out a desirable area.
What Home Sellers Should Know:
These Cities Had the Most Sales Growth in 2025
By the Numbers:
By Percentage:
2025 Median Sales:
2026 Outlook:
*Per RL Brown Reports, a local specialist on new home construction data.
Arizona Home and Auto
Eric Battisti, Licensed Insurance Agent
