Ashlee & Associates Market Update banner as highlighted in the May 2025 Market Report

December 2025 Market Report presented by Ashlee Donaldson

The December 2025 Market Report is here to keep you connected to market updates, featured homes, and everything happening in and around the Phoenix Valley each month. Take a look around our website while you’re here – you’ll find our featured properties, learn more about our team, and discover resources designed to help with your next move.

Happy Holiday's from Ashlee & Associates!

As the year comes to a close, I wanted to take a moment to wish you and your loved ones a very Happy Holiday Season and a wonderful start to the New Year.

December 2025 Market Report with Ashlee Donaldson

Cheers to a fabulous and successful 2026!

 

Warmly,

 

Ashlee Donaldson

Ashlee & Associates Phoenix Market Update Banner as highlighted in the October 2025 Market Report
The Cromford Report Infographic and Commentary as featured in the December 2025 Market Report

What Home Buyers Should Know:

Incomes Up 33% in Maricopa County Since 2020

     Journalists reporting on housing affordability are frequently quoting sources that reference median household income. Household income can be broken down into two categories, family and nonfamily households. The US Census defines a family household as two or more people living in a home and related by blood or marriage. 

 

     Nonfamily households are all others, including non-related people living as roommates or people living alone. Nonfamily household income is typically much lower than family income and is more suited for measuring the affordability of rental housing. Family household income is more suited for measuring the affordability of purchasing a home.

 

Household Incomes in Maricopa County: 

 
     From 2020-2024, the median household income in Maricopa County rose 33% from $68K to $91K. The nonfamily median household income rose from $44.5K to $59K. Family income rose from $80K to $108K; and married family income, a subset of family income, rose from $95K to $126K.

  

How This Impacts Lending

 

     Additionally, the lending industry considers 28% of gross income an affordable monthly payment for mortgage or rent. For a family household that’s roughly a $2,500-$3,000 payment. 

 

     At a mortgage rate holding steady around 6.25%, that payment supports homes priced between $350,000 and $500,000 in Maricopa County. That budget will support roughly a 1,500-1,800 square foot single family home, which will trend in the mid-$300s in the West Valley, and the mid-$400s in the Southeast Valley.

 

Incomes in Maricopa County Are Not Stagnant 

 

     To recap, incomes are not stagnant in Maricopa County and have been rising at a significant pace since 2020. It’s home values that have been stagnant for 3 years waiting for family incomes to catch up and mortgage rates to decline. Inventory under $500K accounts for roughly 57% of all inventory for sale and is up 16% from last year. With rates holding steady in the low 6% range for the last 4 months, demand and optimism is up for the onset of 2026. 

What Home Sellers Should Know:

Optimism Emerges for 2026 Home Sales

     November closings were another success for Q4 2025, up 3.3% from last November, except it was actually better than that. November 2024 had 19 closing days compared to this November with 18 closing days, meaning this year November closed an extra 23 sales per day, putting the improvement at 9% instead of 3%. So far December is also outpacing last year with an extra 14 closings per day on average. If this is a peek into what 2026 may bring, then sellers should be optimistic for contract activity in January. 
 

The Big Question…. 

 
     The big question is how many listings will line up to meet January’s expectation of increased demand. January is typically the top month for luxury, retirement and seasonal community listings to hit the market. However, new listings across all price points and areas often see a peak in March, providing ample selection for Spring buyers. This front-loading of inventory in the first part of the year often results in a rising number of price reductions as well, the level of which depends on whether we enter the year in a buyer’s market, balanced, or seller’s market.

 

Buyer vs. Seller Markets

 
     However, recent improvements in demand combined with declines in supply are pushing the Cromford Market Index back in the direction towards a balanced state. 
 
     While Greater Phoenix is still in a buyer’s market overall, central and established cities are becoming the first to move back into seller’s markets. Most recently, Phoenix, Mesa, and Tempe shifted back into seller’s markets within the last 30 days, putting nearly all cities in the Northeast and Southeast Valley in seller’s markets, with the exception of buyer’s markets Queen Creek and Sun Lakes. 
 
     On the other hand, developing cities on the edges of Metro Phoenix are typically the last ones to pull out of a buyer’s market. Pinal County cities, for example, are buyer’s markets except for Apache Junction, which is a seller’s market. The West Valley is a mix as El Mirage is a small seller’s market and Peoria recently shifted into a balanced market, joining Glendale, Avondale, and Laveen. All other West Valley cities are buyer’s markets.

 

What To Expect…

 
      In the end, don’t expect much upward pressure on price in the short term, even if your city has shifted back into a seller’s market. Prices can take up to 6 months to show a response to a shift, which means the seller’s market must be maintained, and many of these cities are still quite weak. What sellers can expect is more showing activity, shorter days on market, and less pressure to reduce their price once the Spring buying season begins.
 

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report
©2025 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC
Vendor Spotlight as featured in the October 2025 Market Report

Cordially Phoenix Boutique & Gifts

This month, I’d love to spotlight Cordially Phoenix, a local favorite known for its beautifully curated mix of home goods, apparel, and thoughtful gifts. Beyond shopping, they’re all about community, hosting creative and social events like espresso martini classes, mahjong lessons, and champagne bottle decorating. 


Cordially Phoenix is the kind of place you stop into once and keep coming back to – whether you’re treating yourself, finding something special for someone else, or planning a fun night out with friends.
 
📍 5121 N Central Ave, Phoenix, AZ 85012
Or shop them online below
Ashlee Donaldson, Luxury Realtor (602)741-6633

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